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We unfortunately as a society (western civilization) haven’t learned anything from this global shock and consequent crisis. Powerful people form WS, City and their respective regulatory agencies, bought politicians still do not have any incentive to change anything. So, business as usual will continue, accumulating additional risks in the global system burdened with over-debtness until next (even bigger) global shock or a cascade of locally/regionally devastating shocks. It’s sad but true.
I believe Black Swan refers to an apparently unlikely event that the ‘status quo’ does not foresee. There will always be individuals who will see things more clearly, such as Taleb and others who foresaw the meltdown.
Hey, Mr. T. – How come Procrustes isn’t available in electronic form, other than Kindle?
Looking forward to getting the book, but really can’t wait for your thoughts and research on tinkering.
NT’s point about us acting like we’re necessary, yes is one of our arrogant biases.
Is nature always smarter? I don’t see that it ALWAYS is, only that we are often wrong and often should have left things alone (eg letting financial institutions that failed us, fall by the wayside.)
Comment by KanchoKomancho on 4 February 2011:
We unfortunately as a society (western civilization) haven’t learned anything from this global shock and consequent crisis. Powerful people form WS, City and their respective regulatory agencies, bought politicians still do not have any incentive to change anything. So, business as usual will continue, accumulating additional risks in the global system burdened with over-debtness until next (even bigger) global shock or a cascade of locally/regionally devastating shocks. It’s sad but true.
Comment by GregBuls on 4 February 2011:
I believe Black Swan refers to an apparently unlikely event that the ‘status quo’ does not foresee. There will always be individuals who will see things more clearly, such as Taleb and others who foresaw the meltdown.
Comment by maxmax655 on 4 February 2011:
Your definition of black swan is wrong. Black swans are completely unforeseeable, but appear to have been foreseeable with hindsight.
Comment by Lunage1 on 4 February 2011:
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Comment by tanyamuriyan on 4 February 2011:
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Comment by DCWhatthe on 4 February 2011:
@sal0212 Mr. T., pity the fool. Got it, but it took almost a minute. Ok, next time it will be N.T., or Nassim.
Comment by sal0212 on 4 February 2011:
@DCWhatthe
i pitty the fool
v
Comment by DCWhatthe on 4 February 2011:
Hey, Mr. T. – How come Procrustes isn’t available in electronic form, other than Kindle?
Looking forward to getting the book, but really can’t wait for your thoughts and research on tinkering.
NT’s point about us acting like we’re necessary, yes is one of our arrogant biases.
Is nature always smarter? I don’t see that it ALWAYS is, only that we are often wrong and often should have left things alone (eg letting financial institutions that failed us, fall by the wayside.)